The political situation in South Africa suddenly turned volatile shortly after a report by the independent Section 89, a Parliament appointed panel, was made public. The report stated in its findings that President Cyril Ramaphosa may have seriously contravened the country’s Constitution.
The panel’s conclusions left the President and his camp in chaos as they tried to come forward with a perfect response to the pressure. There was widespread speculation on Thursday (1 December) that the president was contemplating announcing his resignation at a media briefing that was penciled for later that day. The briefing was eventually canceled amid reports his inside circle had convinced him to fight on.
As Ramaphosa is now engaged in a fight for his political life, the future of both the party he leads in government, and the country at large hangs in a delicate balance.
What is he accused of?
The allegations against the President arose from a robbery incident at the president’s Phala Phala Game Farm situated in Limpopo, north of the country’s capital Pretoria. The incident involving the theft of more than US$500 000 allegedly occurred in February 2020.
The latest report by the Section 89 independent panel looked into the available evidence of the Phala Phala saga in which the president is facing of a litany of accusations. Among other things; the President is accused of concealing the theft of the money by not reporting the matter to the police and lack of clarity on how he had acquired the money. There are also allegations involving kidnapping and bribery attached to the same case.
According to the report, the president has a case to answer which means there are strong grounds for impeachment.
The President however maintains his innocence and maybe prepared to fight a long battle to keep his job. “I have endeavoured, throughout my tenure as President, not only to abide by my oath but to set an example of respect for the Constitution, for its institutions, for due process and the law. I categorically deny that I have violated this oath in any way, and I similarly deny that I am guilty of any of the allegations made against me,” read part of the media statement from the office of The Presidency on 30 November.
How the matter came to light
The case became public in June 2022 when Arthur Fraser, a former intelligence chief under Ramaphosa’s predecessor Jacob Zuma, opened a criminal case against the President for the burglary at the game farm in early 2020.
In his police statement Fraser reported that the amount stolen was at least $4 million in US dollars. However, Ramaphosa himself disputes this figure. The money was hidden at the farm’s private residence in a sofa.
“He stored the money below cushions of a sofa in a spare bedroom that is hardly ever used, inside my private residence, because he thought it was the safest place, as he believed nobody would break into the president’s house,” said Ramaphosa in an affidavit submitted to the Section 89 panel. He was talking in reference to the Farm Manager who was in charge of safekeeping the money at the time it was stolen.
He said also explained that the stolen money was proceeds from game buffaloes to a Sudanese businessman Mustafa Hazim.
At the time the report was made, the nature of the accusations levelled against Ramaphosa shook the South African political corridors to the core. Ramaphosa had been in the headlines in the fight against corruption and the blitz had already claimed several senior members of his party. Most had been forced to step aside from government and party duty while investigations were underway. It remains to be seen if Ramaphosa himself will abide by his own rules to step aside.
What will happen if he resigns?
President Cyril Ramaphosa is still expected to address the nation soon in response to this report. However, given the damning nature of the report by the Section 89 panel chances are high the President may resign immediately before the impeachment process is initiated.
“The President is giving consideration to the report and an announcement will be made in due course.” Vincent Magwenya, the Presidency spokesperson announced.
If he decides to resign then in-line with the constitution his deputy, David Mabuza, may take over as acting president through a Parliamentary process.
However, anyone who takes over from Ramaphosa in this context may not be guaranteed to hold the position for long. Everything will depend on who emerges as the next ANC party presidency after the departure of Ramaphosa. The ruling party holds its national elective conference in mid-December.
There has been calls by opposition parties to dissolve Parliament and go for an early election if Ramaphosa resigns. The biggest question is, will the President capitulate to the pressure and resign?
What if he refuses to resign?
After initial fears the President was going to resign as early as Thursday, it is now clear Ramaphosa intends to fight on. It is reported the President did not attend his party’s National Executive Committee meeting where the Section 89 report was to be deliberated upon by the most senior leadership. He was certainly going to be pressured to resign by his fellow party members so he chose to abscond while he seeks a better way out.
Reports on Saturday pointed that Ramaphosa was seriously considering challenging the Phala Phala report the legal way. He is determined to stretch the process.
So, in the case he doesn’t resign, the onus is on the ANC whether they can recall him or he can garner enough support to hang on to the presidency.
Does Ramaphosa still has a fighting chance?
While Ramaphosa’s train seems to have derailed just at a time he was hoping to get the mandate for a second term in office at his party’s elective congress, all is not over yet. According to his publicity team, Ramaphosa is still considering his options.
This means that he is trying to find the best way to circumvent the challenges so he can remain as head of his party, and score a second term as President.
He still has a chance, though slim as things stand. If he can successfully challenge the findings of the panel then he can prove that the allegations are the making of his political opponents who want him gone at all costs. It is widely known that Arthur Fraser is a close political ally to former president Jacob Zuma. If his defense can poke holes in this case then he can live to fight another day.
Ramaphosa can also take advantage of the fact that there is currently no other clear-cut favourite to take over his position. The recent party nominations proved he was still the, most popular candidate to continue as leader of the party. He was endorsed in eight out of nine of the country’s provinces in the lead to the upcoming elective congress. He can utilise this advantage to divide the party if there is no other clear favourite.
Ramaphosa’s departure will have serious geopolitical effects for South Africa, Southern Africa and Africa as a whole. In spite of this scandal, Ramaphosa has been a calming and exemplary figure who has helped foster peace and push development in the region. From leading peacekeeping missions in Mozambique and assuming the chairmanship of the African Union in 2020 to 2021. Ramaphosa was an influential figure during the Covid-19 pandemic helping Africa evade much of the damage suffered by other world regions.
Because of these and other reasons Ramaphosa remains a largely popular politician in and outside South Africa. This influence may help him retain the support of his fellow party members and survive the current challenges he is facing.
